Keller's Median Price Rose and North Richland Hills' Fell. Price Per Square Foot Shows Something Else.

In September 2026, Keller's median sale price went up and North Richland Hills' went down. A buyer comparing the two would reasonably read that as Keller heating up and NRH cooling off. The numbers that decide what happens at the negotiating table say the reverse. NRH sellers got closer to their asking price and sold faster than a year earlier. Keller sellers gave up a bit more and waited a bit longer. In both cities, price per square foot barely moved.

So the medians tell you which homes sold that month, and very little about what homes are worth. A buyer choosing between these two cities needs both pieces, because they lead to different offers.

The September numbers, side by side

These figures come from the North Texas Real Estate Information System's Monthly MLS Summary Report for September 2026, prepared by the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. Each row compares single-family sales in September 2025 with September 2026.

In September 2026, NRH's median fell 10% from a year earlier while its average rose about 4.8%. Keller's median rose about 4.2% while its average fell nearly 12%. In both cities the median and the average moved in opposite directions. Price per square foot changed by less than 1% in each.

Why a median can fall when prices don't

A median is the middle sale in a month's closings. If the mix of homes changes, the middle home changes, even if no individual house sold for less than its neighbor would have a year earlier. A few things move it:

1. More small homes closing pulls the middle down, even when each square foot sells for the same or more.
2. A handful of very large sales pushes the average up without moving the median much.
3. Fewer top-tier sales pulls the average down, even while the middle of the market holds or rises.

North Richland Hills matches the first two. The middle sale in September 2026 was a $360,000 home, yet the median per square foot rose from $197.82 to $199.60 and the average price climbed. That pattern fits a month with more modestly sized homes in the middle of the closings and some larger sales at the top. It does not fit falling values.

Keller matches the third. Sales jumped from 43 in September 2025 to 64 in September 2026. The median moved up to $700,000, but the average dropped by almost $98,000. Per-square-foot pricing stayed essentially flat at about $231. More homes changed hands in the middle of Keller's market, and the very top contributed less to the totals.

August 2026 shows the same split. NRH's median was $372,500, down from $398,500 in August 2025. Keller's was $702,450, up from $675,000, while its average slipped from $809,029 to $782,425.

Monthly city medians are also built on small samples, around 60 sales here, and they swing. In early September, the Fort Worth Report put NRH's July median at $415,000, up 13.7% year over year. That is a different month from a different published source than the NTREIS figures above, and the two can't be reconciled from what was reviewed. Taken together, they show how far one city's median can move within a single summer.

The real gap between the two cities is size, not price per foot

In September 2026, Keller's median sale price was nearly twice NRH's: $700,000 versus $360,000. Keller's median price per square foot was only about 16% higher: $230.87 versus $199.60.

Dividing each median price by its median price per square foot is rough arithmetic, not a measured home size. It still sketches the difference: something near 3,000 square feet at Keller's middle and closer to 1,800 at NRH's. Most of the price gap between these cities comes from how much house and lot a typical sale includes. A much smaller share comes from what each foot costs.

For a buyer, that changes the comparison. If your target is a specific size of home, the gap between the cities is narrower than the medians suggest. If your target is Keller's typical larger home on a larger lot, the medians are a fair guide.

What NRH's price band looks like on the ground

A $360,000 middle sale in North Richland Hills sits right inside the price range of the newest small-format housing in the city. At City Point, Centurion American's 52-acre development, the developer describes about 364 single-family homes across bungalow, urban-home and townhome types, plus land set aside for multifamily. CB JENI's City Point townhomes start at $339,990 and run 1,510 to 2,055 square feet with two or three bedrooms. Move-in-ready homes shown recently were priced from $314,980 to $387,130, including one marked "Ready October."

City Point does not explain September's median by itself. The NTREIS report excludes sales by home builders and non-NTREIS members, so builder closings at City Point may never appear in these city figures. What it does show is the kind of home that competes for an NRH buyer at that price: two-story, attached, newly built, around 1,500 to 2,000 square feet.

The TEXRail stations are where more of this format has gone up. The Fort Worth Report described Iron Horse Station in September 2025 as already surrounded by apartments, townhomes and patio homes. Plans had been received for a remaining tract at Browning Drive and Iron Horse Boulevard. At Smithfield Station, NRH's economic development director told the outlet that building on small, independently owned sites is difficult and slow.

More single-family land is in the pipeline. North Richland Hills' October 12, 2026 council agenda listed a preliminary plat for Smithfield Terrace, 7.494 acres at 6821 Smithfield Road, and a request to rezone 0.956 acres at 8701 Rumfield Road from AG to R-1. The record reviewed showed no final action on either item.

Where Keller's top end went

Keller's average fell in September 2026 while new construction at the very top kept going. Community Impact reported in May 2026 that Greenway Park, at Park Avenue, plans 38 homes on 35 acres with two-thirds-acre lots and projected prices of $2 million to $4 million. Its builders are M the Builders, Providential Custom Homes and Sterling Luxury Homes. At that update, M the Builders had sold six lots and Providential had sold two, with a spec home open to view.

Greenway Park is new construction and lot sales, which is a different channel from the existing-home resales the MLS report measures. The research did not establish how many of Keller's highest-priced resales sat unsold or how long they took. The available numbers show the average falling while sales rose, and the most expensive new product in town being built on estate lots.

Rosebury, near North Main Street and Johnson Road, is a 21-lot subdivision with minimum 8,400-square-foot lots and 1.33 acres of open space. Keller City Council approved its site plan in February 2026. As of May, engineering plans had been submitted and groundbreaking was expected by the end of summer.

The numbers that shape an offer

Here is where the medians mislead most. In September 2026, North Richland Hills homes sold at 96.1% of list price, up from 94.3% a year earlier. Days on market fell from 58 to 40, and months of inventory dropped from 3.4 to 2.8. Active listings fell from 207 to 175. Despite the falling median, NRH sellers in September had more leverage than a year before.

Keller moved slightly the other way. Sold-to-list slipped from 95.7% to 94.3%, and days on market rose from 46 to 50. Inventory was nearly unchanged at 2.8 months, and active listings went from 132 to 141. Compared with August 2026, Keller's days on market rose from 29 to 50 while its sales climbed from 51 to 64.

In practice, an NRH buyer who reads the falling median and offers well under list is working against a market where the typical September sale closed within about 4% of list. A Keller buyer who reads the rising median and rushes is working against a market where homes took a little longer and closed a little further from asking.

One cost Keller just set

Keller City Council approved a city property tax rate of 30.0417 cents per $100 of valuation on September 15, up from 28.7 cents, according to the Fort Worth Report. The outlet reported that the average Keller homeowner will pay $1,381 a year in city property taxes, $7.34 more than under the prior rate. It also reported that this is the ninth straight year Keller has kept its rate below the no-new-revenue rate, the rate that would raise the same property tax revenue as the year before. North Richland Hills adopted its FY2027 rate on September 14, but the adopted amount was not confirmed in the records reviewed. These figures are general information, not tax advice, so confirm what applies to a specific property with a qualified tax professional.

Quick answers

Did North Richland Hills home values drop 10% this year? The September 2026 data doesn't support that reading. The median fell 10%, but median price per square foot rose slightly and the average price rose about 4.8%. The middle sale was a smaller or lower-priced home than a year earlier.

Is Keller getting more expensive? Per square foot, Keller was essentially flat in September 2026, at $230.87 versus $231.23 a year earlier. The median rose because the mix of sales shifted. The average fell.

Do these reports include new-construction sales? Only those sold through the MLS. The NTREIS report excludes sales by home builders and non-NTREIS members, so builder closings at places like City Point may not be counted.

Which number should I use to compare the two cities? Price per square foot for comparable homes, along with sold-to-list ratio and days on market, says more about value and negotiating room than a citywide median does.

Whether you're weighing a Keller offer against an NRH one or deciding when to list, Jennifer Frank can compare your home or target street on price per square foot and recent sold-to-list results, not on the citywide median. Get Your Instant Home Valuation and see where your home fits in this fall's numbers.